Penn Wharton Budget Model Estimates Impact of the CARES Act: Stimulus Will Create 1.5 Million Jobs and $812 Billion in GDP in the Short-Term

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PHILADELPHIA, April 8, 2020 — On March 27, 2020, President Trump signed the $2.3 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act, providing immediate relief to households and businesses in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) has analyzed the short-term economic effects of the pandemic and the CARES Act. PWBM projects that:

  • Without the CARES Act, GDP would have fallen at an annualized rate of 37 percent in 2020 Q2, with the unemployment rate reaching 12 percent by 2020 Q3. 
  • The CARES Act will dampen the short-term decline in GDP to a 30 percent annualized rate in 2020 Q2, with unemployment reaching 11 percent by 2020 Q3.
  • The CARES Act will produce around 1.5 million additional jobs by 2020 Q3 and increase GDP by $812 billion over the next two years. 

For more information, see the full PWBM CARES Act short-term analysis.

Media inquiries: Wharton Media Relations, (communications@wharton.upenn.edu), +1 (215) 898-8036

About the Penn Wharton Budget Model

PWBM is a nonpartisan, independent applied research organization housed at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. PWBM works directly with policymakers and staff, serving as an honest broker by providing accurate, accessible, and transparent economic analysis of the fiscal and economic impact of public policy without advocacy. PWBM’s estimates are regularly referenced by policymakers and top news outlets. For more information, visit https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/

About the Wharton School

Founded in 1881 as the world’s first collegiate business school, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania is shaping the future of business by incubating ideas, driving insights, and creating leaders who change the world. With a faculty of more than 235 renowned professors, Wharton has 5,000 undergraduate, MBA, executive MBA and doctoral students. Each year 13,000 professionals from around the world advance their careers through Wharton Executive Education’s individual, company-customized, and online programs. More than 99,000 Wharton alumni form a powerful global network of leaders who transform business every day. For more information, visit www.wharton.upenn.edu.

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