Penn Wharton Budget Model Projects 3 Million COVID-19 Vaccinations Per Day Would Add 2 Million Jobs, Increase Real GDP By 1 Percent

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Doubling the pace of vaccination would prevent a total 2 million COVID-19 cases in 2021

PHILADELPHIA, March 1, 2021–– The continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic presents the most significant drag on the economy in 2021. Therefore, the pace of economic recovery in 2021 hinges on the pace of vaccination. The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania today released a new report analyzing the epidemiological and economic effects of maintaining, increasing, or decreasing the pace of daily COVID-19 vaccinations from the current rate of around 1.5 million doses per day.

PWBM estimates that:

  • Doubling the number of vaccine doses administered daily to 3 million per day would boost employment by adding 2 million jobs and increase real GDP by about 1 percent over the summer, with smaller effects later in the year.
  • The emergence of more transmissible variants of the virus means that cases are likely to rise later this year, regardless of the pace of vaccination. However, doubling the pace of vaccinations to 3 million per day would prevent a total of about 2 million cases in 2021.
  • By the end of the 2021, about 80 percent of the population will have immunity to COVID-19, either from vaccination or from having been previously infected. This result is about the same across vaccination scenarios, with a slower pace of vaccination leading to more of the population being immunized by previous infection.

For more information, read the full report: Epidemiological and Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Vaccine in 2021

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About the Penn Wharton Budget Model

PWBM is a nonpartisan, independent applied research organization housed at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. PWBM works directly with policymakers and staff, serving as an honest broker by providing accurate, accessible, and transparent economic analysis of the fiscal and economic impact of public policy without advocacy. PWBM’s estimates are regularly referenced by policymakers and top news outlets. For more information, visit

About the Wharton School

Founded in 1881 as the world’s first collegiate business school, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania is shaping the future of business by incubating ideas, driving insights, and creating leaders who change the world. With a faculty of more than 235 renowned professors, Wharton has 5,000 undergraduateMBAexecutive MBA and doctoral students. Each year 13,000 professionals from around the world advance their careers through Wharton Executive Education’s individual, company-customized, and online programs. More than 99,000 Wharton alumni form a powerful global network of leaders who transform business every day. For more information, visit